Wednesday 22 February 2012

Where are all the Drachma's?

Over New Year 1999 I spent a lot of time in the office as I led the Flemings' operational adoption of the Euro. Today my role would have been called programme manager, but back then I think I was called co-ordinator. That weekend was the culmination of months of planning and preparation and there clear and specific rules that everyone had to follow.

In principle the addition of a new currency was not that difficult for the technology as most allowed the addition of new currency codes etc. The issue was converting all the blanaces and values accurately, completely and at the same time making sure that all "outstanding" business, ie transactions that started in 1998, but would only finish in 1999. The volume was the issue and the timing was to allow a long weekend, all before the Y2K (non)event.

On the 1st of January 1999 in the countries involved everyone still had their old currency, coins and notes, and that was still usable. Over time and gradually replaced by new currency stock and the old recalled. Merging many into one was not so hard and indeed in France they still dual priced, Euros AND French Francs for years.

So now I am puzzled, how can Greece leave the Euro and institute a new currency, presumably the New Drachma, without a currency stock?

My sources suggest that the banks are still expecting a  Greek default at Easter. The markets still indicate that a Greece will default eventually even after the latest bailout agreement and Easter is the next, common long weekend, so it is not surprising that those that want to maintain stablity would try and manage the timing.

Now the processes around data are likely to be very similar to that weekend back in 1999, though the volumes will be lower. That said there will need to be very clear rules about the simple mechanics, but the old ones can probably be pulled out, rubbed down and modified.

There will probably need some legislative changes regarding contracts etc, but again that can be delivered, even if it is just in time or even a touch retorspective.

Determining the rate will be critcial as there will be an army of speculators and hedge funds ready to pounce on any perceived mis-pricing. This is not new, but is arguably more pervasive now and the lack of preparatory time increases the chances of mistakes.

Butthe bit I really don't get is what will the Greeks do for cash after a break. I can't beleive that enough can be created let alone distributed in time. Now there may be secret stocks somewhere, but somehow I doubt it. There may even be piles of the old Drachma, but that doesn't feel like the right thing to use.

More than that the question must be how does one identify the "Greek" euros that need to be converted? I know that at issue some euro notes have Greek images on them, but once in circulation all the strains of Euro have mingled so a Greek farmer is as likely to "French", "Belgian" or indeed any other variant of Euro as a "Greek" euros.

For a Greek citizen with a Euro account with a French Bank, is that money still Euros or will it be New Drachma?

I have yet to see an answer to this conundrum, but as the expectation of default remains and grows it is something that needs an answer. If Easter is the date then every day that passes makes delivery of a solution harder. Then again who, politically, is going to make the hard governmental preparations (ie more than theoretical planning) while officially we have a bailout agreement that everyone(?) supports?

As they say, hold on this will be a bumpy ride!

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