The Change Trap!

I have experienced personally and observed in many organisations environments of chronic organisational change, ie change becomes a relentless way of life with the resultant insecurity and fall in results (however you measure results). So what happens when the results are not what is required? Well, you change  things!!!

Personally I once had eight managers in two years due to reorganisations and have seen groups reorganise six times in the same period only to end up essentially the same as they started. This happens too often to be accidental so as is my wont I try and explain things ie why it happens that way and also to visualise what is happening. I thought I would share some of those thoughts here.

The first is why does it happen? Well it is heavily built on self preservation and feeds on itself. Take the scenario where a new head of department is appointed and briefed that either a) things are wrong and need fixing or b) things need to move on/improve from where they are. Broadly they have two choices:-

1. Accept the people and structures they have arguing that any development required will be incremental and there is no need to undertake a root and branches change; or
2. Look to a root and branches changes leaving nothing sacred or intact, people or processes.

The outcome is binary too, success or failure. If the manager adopted option 1 and succeeded then that is probably fine, but it might have happened anyway. If the took the same option and failed they will leave themselves open to criticism and possibly being fired.

In the same what if they opt for 2 and succeed then they are the brave hero, and if they fail well at least they tried.

When looked at this way the less risky personal option is to change things and this becomes a learned behaviour. It is often also the easiest route because people are expecting you to do just that. Deciding to work with what you have is likely to attract criticism and doubt from the get go.

So that is why these things happen, but can we visualise the effect and explain how destructive it can become.

Well I start with a standard curve like so

This can represent performance (however you wish to define it) as a result of change. Initially the change introduces unknown elements that have to be learnt/assimilated and tuned. This usually creates an initial dip in performance, but as familiarity and expertise grows then so does performance, back to and past the original levels. This is likely to continue for a while, but will eventually start to flag as the organisation becomes complacent and the world changes making the current system less relevant. If it goes in long enough then performance can start dipping too as the mismatch between organisation and world increases.

This type of curve is seen in many aspects of management thinking.

The trick is to initiate a change before performance growth slows too much; something like this

In practice the real world performance would be more like the black line in this.

Each change has an initial dip in performance, but this is recovered and built upon, creating an average performance growth trend shown by the red line.

This doesn't look too bad, but what if you change too frequently? well that means changing curves earlier in the cycle. At a simple level it could look like this?

If you do this then the trend line drops and you achieve less that previously. And taken to an extreme the trend line can dip below the horizontal like this

Now this is a simple visualisation, but contains some essential truth. We can look to minimise the drop in performance or its duration, but broadly speaking as long as you change before the peak, the more your change, maybe through lack of patience or, as we said before, self preservation, the worst the performance improvement gets.

The irony should not be lost on the reader that these changes are almost always intended to improve things, yet will often have the opposite effect.

Now if you consider that  the trend line management usually seeks looks like this .......

.......... have a think about how the change curves can help us achieve it?

LinkedIn - A new venue for scammers?

Well I guess it had to happen; I received my first scamme mail on LinkedIn. The text is shown below.

To a degree I allowed it by accepting an invitation from someone I didn't know,but then the value of networking is when you step out of your usual circles so I am always ready to consider invitations. This one will now be deleted!

Good morning Dear,

It's my pleasure to communicate with you as i have gone through your profile as a member of LINKEDIN.COM, with hope it will please you to hear from me, I am Sharon K. Williams the only child to late Mr. Leonel Williams, I am presently in England studding International Affairs. I want to solicit your attention to help me receive my inheritance from my late father on my behalf. I know you can be trusted and also my spirit accepts you.

The bank just called me this morning for immediate responds as the funds are due to be released to me which was on a fixed deposit, and if I did not act now to receive them it might turn into a story, So I am using this opportunity to ask you of this, and I know you can help me receive it and keep it safe as I will be rounding up from school before the end of next month. Get back to me for more details.

Sharon.

I particularly like the idea of "studding" in England and indeed it may well be possible for "Sharon" who is probably a bloke anyway.

I of course am rushing to help this damsel in distress so no one else need bother! Not!

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPad

Is it just January? Or me?

I have noticed that I have not blogged as much in recent weeks, since Christmas really. It has not been a conscious decision; it just happened.

Many of my posts have come when it feels natural to do so, when an idea has formed in my mind or I have seen something stimulating or of note. It just feels like those moments have been in short supply recently. That is not to say there is anything bad or lacking in life right now, because I don't think there is.

From the blogs point of view it is gratifying that I am still receiving an ever increasing number of pageviews each month, well the trend is ever increasing while months do fluctuate a little.

I have tried to think about why this barren(?) patch may be in case I can learn anything from it. I am not sure that I have any concrete conclusions, but will share here the forming ideas and feelings that I have.

The first is undoubtedly the time of year. The world does seem to slow down around Christmas and with our recent weather I have been out and about less. I would also say that I had a quite but stress free and enjoyable Christmas and still feel rather relaxed and content. One manifestation is that I have been reading more (novels) in the evenings. I have also, with my wife, decorated two rooms at home that have kept us rather busy towards the end of the Christmas break and subsequent weekends.

So I guess my mind has been quieter, more relaxed, more occupied and subject to less outside stimulation. Maybe that has reduced my inclination to blog this month.

Rather more analytical I have had a look at the statistics provided by my blogging site and that has been interesting in itself.

I looked over 2012, at the number of blogs written each month and the reported activity levels.

This first graph shows both the posts I made each month (A) and the reported pageviews each months. I have divided the page views by 100 (B) to bring them to the same scale.

I think we can see a pretty strong correlations between peaks and troughs.

The next graph looked at the page views (again divided by 100) (B) and the total number of posts in the blog, divided by 10 (C) this time to come into the same scale.

And in this instance we can see a similarity between the total number of posts and the upward trend in page views.

This suggested that a simple sum of components may be instructive. What I did was add (A) and (C) and look to plot it over (B). In this instance for illustrative purposes I adjusted the sum by dividing by 1.7 to place it pretty much over (B)

This certainly suggests that the two factors, new posts and total posts are pretty stroing determinants of total page views each month. This is not too surprising as followers will pick up on activity and the search engines are impacted by the volume of searchable content.

I will keep an eye on this going forward and if it holds up then it is a good benchmark against which to assess future developments. The irony (maybe) is that the posting of this entry will contribute to its own analysis.

Playing from the Bench!

In my 30 years working I have had two extended periods “on the bench” or “between jobs” if you like. Both have been in the last 10 years and my personal experience of each was rather different. I should say that I am working again now.

Being on the bench is more common these days than it was. I had been made redundant twice before the year 2000, but fortunately never ended up on the bench. Each time I had taken the out-placement help that was offered and heard all about working your network and the importance of a good CV (presentation as well as content). In retrospect I am not sure the advice helped me much back then, but I am glad I had the ideas locked in my memory to fall back on.

In recent weeks I have received some comments that suggested my recent experience could help others who are currently facing the difficult employment market.

Without labouring matters, the first time around I did not manage matters as well. My idea of networking was to call a few friends I had and once they could not help, that network branch rather died. I tended to rely upon internet job sites and scouring the email job lists I received daily. You can probably imagine the success rate and where the seeds of depression could take root. It was all about rejection, helplessness, futility and little support.

I have to say, with a little pride, that my most recent “rest” was unaided by out-placement and very different. I have tried to distil the differences into a quick list of seven (yes that magic number) thoughts.

1.       Be open in your attitude to opportunities. It is easy to define your potential just in terms of the roles you have fulfilled, eg “I used to be a {enter last role title}, so that is what I need to look for now”. This time around I looked at my skills and strengths and how they could apply to related opportunities. I did not try and launch a new career, but I did widen my thinking and was able to articulate the ideas quickly when I had a chance to explain. Even if someone offers you something you don’t want, listen and steer it around to explore opportunities you do.

I used some inexpensive analysis tools to help me gain some different perspectives. In particular I liked the insight and vocabulary that Strengthsfinder2.0 provided.

2.       You only have a half page CV. I will admit that the quality of my CV has ebbed and flowed. I recently realised that continual customisation (to fit it to each opportunity) had left it rather flabby, with key information being relegated to far back. A contact reminded me that in the current world you don’t really have a two or three page CV, but rather a half page CV with other information attached. As recruiters have less and less time, if you do not make the right impression with the right information in the first 10 lines or so, then the recruiter will already be looking at the next CV. I have certainly noticed the difference when I get it right!

Linked to this is check the rest of the CV to remove anything that could give the recruiter a reason to still reject your CV eg owning up to a strong interest in heavy metal will only appeal to a small audience – so leave it off.

3.       Be aware of and develop your brand. This sounds simple, but can be hard work.

a.       Get a decent email address; foxy@hotmail.com is wrong in so many ways!

b.      Put a decent voicemail greeting on your phone

c.       Have some decent personal cards printed, they are not expensive

d.      Think about blogging

e.      Build an effective profile on Linkedin and other networking and recruitment sites

f.        Contribute to relevant discussions and forums demonstrating your knowledge and approach

4.       Be sure to invest in your future. By this I mean take time to build your knowledge and influence

a.       Develop key network contacts, by meeting them for lunch or afterwork

b.      Join discussion groups, especially ones you can get to physically, but also online gatherings in areas where you either already have expertise or want to develop it. It is amazing what rubs off just through mixing with experts

5.       “No” is only the end if you let it be. Most people want to help and do not like saying “No” to someone in need. This means that they probably want to say “Yes” to your next request. This could be asking for any other good contacts, permission to contact them again at some point, feedback on your CV, etc.

The other thing is to judge the right time to make contact again. Too frequent and you can exhaust their goodwill, too seldom and you may well be forgotten.  Some people will be more useful that others, generally if you feel some sort of rapport then those are the ones to cultivate further.

6.       Karma works. This is a rather personal belief, but if in my efforts to find a role, I spotted an opportunity to help someone else I knew then I always took that opportunity. I expected nothing in return, but believed it would make it more likely that someone else would help me. Of course when it worked it also strengthened my network, both with my contact and the recruiter, which is no bad thing.

7.       Keep smiling, even when it hurts. If it looks as if you have lost faith in yourself why should others invest in you? This smiling is not just on your face, but how you dress, how you walk and how you talk. We all have down times, but when you do, be careful. Either spend it is with close friends who knows you and understand and may be able to lift you, alternatively, and this is the only time I recommend this action, blag it. Make out that you are smiling even if you are not.

I may have been lucky this time (eventually), but then again maybe I created that luck. Looking back I do think looking that I have embraced all seven of these ideas more positively this time around and it helped…. a lot.

I will do my best to help anyone if I can, especially in these difficult times and if this article helps just one person then Karma look out!

AIFMD - a simple picture of the next "Big Thing"?

Well if the number of calls I have had from recruiters and fellow change agents is anything to go by AIFMD is sizzling hot!!! For those not au fait with the term this is the new European Alternative Investment Fund Management Directive aimed at bringing all those rogue investors into line, well that is what the regulators would have you believe. It is over 100 "articles" prescribing how any fund that is not already (heavily) regulated under UCITS (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) will measured, run and reported.

In practice this is gathering in many, many low risk funds and their managers - probably not what was intended, but what is happening. The wording says if a fund is not UCITS then it is covered by AIFMD!!!

The meaningful detail was published just before Christmas so it is maybe not surprising that many companies are now starting to move.

I took an afternoon to read the detail last week. I could say it is mind-numbing, but that would be unkind to general anaesthetics. That said with a little thought and mental organisation it becomes more understandable and more manageable.

My first move was to just list out all the article titles under their section headings and managed to get that list down to two sides of A4. The light started dawning at that stage and I could see how the pieces could be grouped together.

The diagram at the front of this blog is my current visualisation. I think it needs a bit more work, but is pretty close. So let me explain it and see if it is of any help to anyone else. I will keep the explanation quite high level so don't be afraid to read on.

I see the successful implementation of AIFMD is built on four pieces of work and surrounding intent for transparent communication. The four pieces are:-

Business Model: Sort out the new business model you will need as a fund manager and for your funds, ie who will do what for whom and be sure that it meets the new rules. I suggest doing this top down with principles and high level target operating models. This will by necessity include Depositaries - see later.

Business Processes: Then look at the rules about how you will do business. if you are familiar with UCITS then this will not be confusing. It is about how one remunerates people, manages risk and liquidity, resolves conflicts of interest etc.

Technical Stuff: This is the stuff that specifies how assets are valued, the calculations for leverage etc. It is a bit geeky and as the title suggest more technical.

The Depositary: This is now a must have role with alternative funds and has a number of new an onerous obligations. The key is to ensure that your existing Depositary can and will step up, or if you need one then you find one in good time.

As I said there is then a load of stuff about who has to report what and how to whom.


When you look at it like that it is much simpler than waving a thick wad of papers in front of a confused investment manager.

I wonder if anyone else sees it this way?? If you think I have got it wrong please do tell me. I am sure the detailed implementation will make it more complicated, but I like to start with the simplest model possible and add just enough complexity rather than start complicated from which there is only one way to go and that is not simplification.

Should I be ordering stocks of vellum in the 21st Century?

I have such and exciting life that yesterday I was reading the Level 2 rules of the Alternative Investment Fund Management Directive (AIFMD) as published by the European Parliament just before Christmas.

I won't be going into any of the detail, but one phrase strucj me as being out of place and potentially out of time. The phrase appears in a number of place, one which is Article 26 related the provision of information and goes

 "....shall promptly provide the investor, by means of a durable medium, with the essential information......"

 

The emphasis on "durable medium" is mine and is the piece that is out of place, at least to my mind and made me wonder why it was specifically added.

 

With so much information exchanged electronically I wonder if a digital file held on magnetic (inherently re-writable!) classifies as durable? The requirement does seem to be a throwback to the good old days of paper.....or vellum.

 

I mention vellum as it is the medium used to record the Acts of Parliament in the UK. This has been the case for hundreds of years. Vellum which is prepared calf-hide is the preferred medium due to its durability. Of course a lot depends on the quality of the material and its preparation, but I recall talk of it last a 1,000 years! I doubt we could say that about optical dics etc.

 

Anyway, while the jibe about vellum was a little tongue-in-cheek, the precise phraseology does interest me. It has been suggested that it may be down to poor translation (from French?)

 

I will be looking for a pratcical interpretation in due course, but right now I will just smile at the idea of financial services companies requiring the services of scribes and the use of vellum. Very space age!!!

 

If Usain Bolt was a project manager.........

......he would not want to be slow out of the blocks for 2013, but most of us will be!

 

The world of business change has increasingly become a series of annual sprints whose cycical start and end is defiend by the Christmas (and New Year) break. While in the purest sense projects and change should be agnostic to the annual cycles and take the time they need when it is needed, budgets, planning and performance appraisals (both corporate and personal) and thus management focus is firmly aligned to the calendar.

Reality, however refuses to respect these boundaries and in this blog I want to cover two aspects. The first is that whatever is not completed by year end still needs to be done, and often it must be done before one can undertake the work planned for the new year. In order to complete this overhang of work management needs to divert resource and attention from the start of "new year". While the clever acocuntants can often move some the project budget between years, the resources (ie people) who are the lifeblood of any project do not suddenly become capable of 14 hours work a day (at least not for any extended period). As a result this delays the start of "new" work and sets the year off badly.

This is a real problem and I am prepared to bet that the majority of firms have significant unfinished work that has slipped into 2013. In past incarnations I have seen some of this unfinsihed work stretch out into Q2 and have a major impact on current plans. It also creates the real risk of a repeated offence at the end of this year when for a number of reasons including delayed starts, there will be work hanging over into 2014.

There are ways to break this cycle, but few are palatable to managers. The biggest one is a higher degree of realism and honesty in planning, especially the annual planning process that takes place for most companies in August/September. To forecast and allow for the likely overhang is rarely acceptable, but would make a lot of sense! The second is to more effective and realistic planning along with more timely intervention when things look to be in trouble. The last is promotion that early delivery is both acceptable and desirable. Wouldn't you rather have a clear desk in early December knowing that all that was planned has been delivered, allowing you to start preparing for the new year, rather than the more common brinksmanship that pushes meetings and signatures right up to the holiday period.

A second corrective action is to more properly reflect peoples true behavior around the holiday period. Most project plans that I have seen designate a period of 10 to 14 days around Christmas and New Year when they expect little or no work to be done. This is not unreasonable, but what it usually assumes is. This is that work contines at 100% effort right up the start of that break and restarts at 100% at the end.

 

 

Reality is that effort and contribution starts declining around the beginning of December as people's attention turns to the holiday period and they are distracted by parties (company and personal) and other invitations. Similarly work only winds up again gradually after the holiday period and is rarely at 100% before mid-January. The real result of this is the loss of something like two weeks of planned/expected effort; something that has to be made up at the real start of the new year ie after mid-January.

As in all things we have choices. We could be like the sprinter on the left, continually working against a dragging factor, or we could look to emulate Usain! I know where I want to be. Do you?







What can you do?

• Right now the best you can do is to really understand what is overhanging from 2012 and sechedule it in as quickly as possible, ie clear the decks fast.
• Linked with this look at the knock on effects and start taking mitigating actions with the aim that by the end of February you will be where yoiu planned to be!

Looking forward you can and should

• Look at your planning process for 2014 and see how you can enhance it and capture the realities of life
• Ensure that your planning around year end 2014 is not idealistic
• Start managing your year end deliveries from September - that way you have a chance to take corrective action
• Look at encouraging early delivery, rather than just in time!